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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFormer Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren: Expect the core PCE index to continue trending downwardFormer Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the Fed's inflation fight, state of the U.S. economy, interest rate path outlook, and more.
Persons: Eric Rosengren Organizations: Former Boston Fed, Boston Fed Locations: U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDecline in average hourly earnings is positive for rate cuts, says Fmr. Boston Fed PresidentEric Rosengren, Former Boston Fed president, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to discuss the March jobs report and its impact on Fed policy moving forward.
Persons: Eric Rosengren Organizations: Boston Fed
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFormer Boston Fed Pres. Eric Rosengren: The Fed should be 'forecast dependent', not data dependentFormer Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the February CPI inflation data, what it means for the Fed's interest rate outlook, and more.
Persons: Former Boston Fed Pres, Eric Rosengren Organizations: Former Boston Fed, Boston Fed
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBond rates will probably come down, but not dramatically, says Fmr. Boston Fed PresidentEric Rosengren, Former Boston Fed president, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the FOMC's next move, what's in store for the bond market, the state of the economy and more.
Persons: Eric Rosengren Organizations: Boston Fed
Jack Ma Doubles Down on Alibaba
  + stars: | 2024-01-23 | by ( Andrew Ross Sorkin | Ravi Mattu | Bernhard Warner | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +6 min
(Both men already hold sizable amounts of Alibaba stock.) Alibaba itself bought back $9.5 billion worth of stock last year, reducing its share count by over 3 percent. The stock purchases will probably bring attention back to Ma, a former English teacher who helped start Alibaba as an e-commerce platform. Ma, who hasn’t held a management role at Alibaba or Ant in years but remains a lifetime partner in the Alibaba Partnership, now largely focuses on Bill Gates-style philanthropy. And she’s expected to take swipes at Trump’s economic record as president.
Persons: Tsai, Ma, Alibaba, Ant, hasn’t, Bill Gates, Nikki Haley, Donald Trump, Eric Rosengren, Robert Kaplan, Kaplan, Rosengren, Archer, Daniels, Vikram Luthar, Scott Stuber, Spike Lee, Martin Scorsese, Jane Campion, Stuber, Ted Sarandos, Netflix’s, Bela Bajaria, Biden’s, Janet Yellen, Lael Brainard, they’re, Biden, ” Ray Fair Organizations: Pool Management, Alibaba, Brooklyn Nets, New York Liberty, Nets, Boston Fed, Dallas Fed, Republican, Biden, Yale, Times Locations: U.S, Hong Kong, China, Ma, Beijing, , Paris, New Hampshire, Dixville
A watchdog review into market trading from two former high-ranking Federal Reserve officials criticizes their actions but does not accuse either of doing anything illegal. Revelations showed that some Fed officials engaged in market trading at a time when they also were considering important and delicate policy matters in the early days of the Covid pandemic in 2020. The report concludes that their actions resulted in conflicts of interest that raised issues over impartiality and the proper conduct of central bank officials. On Kaplan, the report states that the OIG "did not find that his trading activities violated laws, rules, regulations, or policies related to trading activities as investigated by our office." Since the controversy, the Fed has revamped its trading rules and now prohibits officials from owning stocks, bonds and cryptocurrencies.
Persons: Robert Kaplan, Eric Rosengren, — Kaplan, Jerome Powell, Richard Clarida, Raphael Bostic, Clarida, Kaplan Organizations: Eccles Federal, Federal, Fed's, Dallas, Atlanta Fed, Fed, Kaplan, CNBC, Federal Reserve, Dallas Fed Locations: Washington , DC, Boston, U.S
While Fed officials haven't indicated how many months in a row it will take of easing inflation data to reach that conclusion, 12-month core CPI has fallen each month since April. The Fed prefers core inflation measures as a better gauge of long-run inflation trends. Traders appear to have more certainty than Fed officials at this point. If correct, that would take the benchmark rate down to a target range of 4.25%-4.5% and would be twice as aggressive as the pace Fed officials penciled in back in September. But pricing of Fed actions can be volatile, and there are two more inflation reports ahead before that meeting.
Persons: Spencer Platt, Lou Crandall, Wrightson ICAP, We're, Crandall, Jerome Powell, haven't, They're, Eric Rosengren Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Getty, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Boston Fed Locations: New York City, Atlanta
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFormer Boston Fed Pres. Rosengren: October CPI 'about as good of an outcome' as the Fed could expectFormer Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss October's CPI data, the impact on the Fed's inflation fight, whether we've seen the full effects of rate hikes, rate path outlook, and more.
Persons: Rosengren, Eric Rosengren, we've Organizations: Former Boston Fed, Boston Fed
But at the regional level, the IG has yet to weigh in on the trading activities of Rosengren, Kaplan and current Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic. Both Rosengren and Kaplan have said they followed the Fed rules that governed trading at the time, and their disclosures were approved by Fed lawyers. Conti-Brown praised the central bank's new ethics regime as likely the best in government, which he said casts the IG's work in an even worse light. They have proposed legislation that would make the Fed IG position a presidential appointment requiring confirmation by the Senate, something Bialek has publicly opposed. During a hearing in the Senate in May, Bialek said the Fed had never interfered in his work.
Persons: That's, Jerome Powell, Eric Rosengren, Robert Kaplan, Mark Bialek, Elizabeth Warren, Rick Scott, Peter Conti, Brown, Powell, Richard Clarida, Kaplan, Raphael Bostic, Rosengren, Bostic, Conti, Warren, Scott, Bialek, Clarida, she's, There's, Michael S, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: Dallas, Boston Federal Reserve, U.S . Congress, Boston Fed, Dallas Fed, Fed, Democratic, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Reserve Bank, Rosengren, Atlanta Fed, Senate, Committee, Thomson Locations: U.S
Sept. 9, 2021: Kaplan and Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren pledge to divest their stock holdings. Sept. 27, 2021: Kaplan and Rosengren announce their departures from the Fed within hours of one another. Oct. 4, 2021: Powell refers the matter to Fed Inspector General Mark Bialek for a fuller investigation. July 14, 2022: The IG clears Powell and Clarida of wrongdoing over trades that violated the Fed's investment policy. Oct. 14, 2022: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic announces what he said were inadvertent violations of policies restricting when Fed officials could trade and invest.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Evelyn Hockstein, Powell, Robert Kaplan, Kaplan, Eric Rosengren, Elizabeth Warren, supportto Kaplan, Rosengren, Mark Bialek, Richard Clarida, Clarida, Raphael Bostic, Bostic, Michael S, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, Federal Reserve, REUTERS, Street Journal, Dallas, Boston Fed, Dallas Fed, Democratic U.S, Fed, Rosengren, Boston, New York Times, Atlanta Fed, Senate, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, U.S, Dallas
U.S. crude futures climb over $2 late in session
  + stars: | 2023-08-31 | by ( Erwin Seba | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for October settled at $83.63 a barrel, up $2, or 2.45%. Brent crude futures for October, expiring on Thursday, finished up $1, 1.16%, at $86.86 a barrel. "The crude market is reacting to OPEC production cuts being extended," said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. On Thursday, six-month U.S. crude oil futures traded as low as $3.83 below crude for front month delivery , the steepest discount since Nov. 17, signalling tight supplies and encouraging inventory draws. Analysts expect Saudi Arabia to extend a voluntary oil production cut of 1 million bpd into October, adding to cuts put in place by OPEC+.
Persons: Lucy Nicholson, Andrew Lipow, Brent, Ole Hansen, Eric Rosengren, Ahmad Ghaddar, Jeslyn Lerh, David Goodman, Nick Macfie, Paul Simao, Cynthia Osterman Organizations: REUTERS, bbl, Fed, Organization Petroleum Exporting, . West Texas, Brent, Lipow Oil Associates, U.S . Energy, Administration, OPEC, Saxo Bank, Commerce Department, Reserve, Boston Fed, National Bureau of Statistics, Thomson Locations: Bakersfield , California, Saudi Arabia, China, HOUSTON, U.S, Singapore
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFmr. Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren: I expect an easing in labor market in second half of 2023Eric Rosengren, former Boston Fed President and MIT Golub Center visiting scholar, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the Fed's inflation fight, whether more interest rate hikes are in store, and more.
Persons: Eric Rosengren Organizations: Boston Fed, MIT Golub Center
The June hike is now off the table completely, and traders now see a 15% chance of the Fed not raising at all this week or in June. This is significant for the June 14 policy decision because the Fed also releases its new Summary of Economic Projections that day. The deposit flight may have stopped but Fed officials will be acutely aware of the negative feedback loop on the economy, given the deep-rooted linkages between small banks and businesses. The March survey of small businesses by the National Federation of Independent Business showed multiple signs of weakness, and even more attention than usual will fall on the next Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey. Will the Fed be raising rates on June 14 if this is still a live issue?
While that's good for them, it also means "we're definitely moving towards a slowdown," one CFO said. "They are trying to fight a problem but there's evidence around the U.S. that says the economy is slowing. One concern voiced by CFOs is that the top end of the consumer market has been masking deeper problems in the economy, with companies tracking a rise in credit delinquencies, and that is now starting to spread. But inside major corporations, executives say they see signs of mounting trouble for the economy and as another interest rate hike looms, it may be time for the Fed to stop. While traders are betting on rate cuts before year-end, the CNBC Fed Survey shows a belief from economists and money managers that the Fed will hold rates higher for eight months.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHere's why former Boston Fed president Eric Rosengren would veto a 25 basis point hikeEric Rosengren, former Boston Fed president and visiting MIT scholar, joins 'Squawk Box' to preview the Fed's two-day policy meeting, and explains why he would veto a 25 basis point hike.
The real-estate sector has also been hard hit by Fed rate rises and commercial real estate has also been hobbled by the shift away from in-office work during the pandemic. Rechler serves as what’s called a Class B director on the 12-person panel of private citizens who oversee the New York Fed. Each of the quasi-private regional Fed banks are also operated under the oversight of the Fed’s Board of Governors in Washington, which is explicitly part of the government. The boards overseeing each of the regional Fed banks are made up of a mix of bankers, business and non-profit leaders. Their most visible role is helping regional Fed banks find new presidents, although bankers who serve as directors are by law not part of this process.
The real-estate sector has also been hard hit by Fed rate rises and commercial real estate has also been hobbled by the shift away from in-office work during the pandemic. Rechler serves as what’s called a Class B director on the 12-person panel of private citizens who oversee the New York Fed. Each of the quasi-private regional Fed banks are also operated under the oversight of the Fed’s Board of Governors in Washington, which is explicitly part of the government. The boards overseeing each of the regional Fed banks are made up of a mix of bankers, business and non-profit leaders. Their most visible role is helping regional Fed banks find new presidents, although bankers who serve as directors are by law not part of this process.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFormer Boston Fed president: I'm concerned we haven't seen all problems from higher ratesEric Rosengren, former Boston Fed president and visiting MIT scholar, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss what Rosengren thinks the Fed will do and what the Fed should do, the difference between a 25 bps rate hike and a 50 bps rate hike and more.
Financial markets now expect interest-rate cuts as soon as May or June, with the Fed policy rate seen ending the year a full percentage point lower than it is now. Trader bets and actual Fed policy decisions often diverge, and analysts caution against taking the market view as gospel. Interest rates should pause until the degree of demand destruction can be evaluated.”WILD SWINGSExpectations for the U.S. central bank’s next move have swung wildly in recent days. Now, with the banking crisis seemingly rekindled and banking stocks again under pressure, traders are looking for one more Fed rate hike if that, and then a string of interest-rate reductions, with the rate ending this year in a 3.5%-3.75% range. “It’s conceivable that we’ve seen the peak in market interest rates this cycle,” said John Lynch, chief investment officer for Comerica Wealth Management.
Long-awaited Fed digital payment system to launch in July
  + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
The Federal Reserve's digital payments system, which it promises will help speed up the way money moves around the world, will debut in July. FedNow, as it will be known, will create "a leading-edge payments system that is resilient, adaptive, and accessible," said Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin, who is the program's executive sponsor. Participants will complete a training and certification process in early April, according to a Fed announcement. Institutions that participate in the program will have seven-day, 24-hour access, as opposed to a system currently in place that closes on weekends. Some Fed officials say the program even could supplant the need for a central bank digital currency.
That's a slowdown from the year-over-year increase of 8.2% in September, and below the 8.0% increase economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected to see. And core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, saw a year-over-year increase of 6.3% in October, below September's year-over-year increase of 6.6%. This inflation data comes amid concerns of a looming recession, and debates on how bad of an economic downturn it will truly be. Any recession that comes will be mildAs Insider previously reported, a 2023 recession will look unlike any recession Americans have recently experienced, and the latest inflation data and strong jobs report bolster that sentiment. And looking forward, declining inflation levels are likely to shape the Fed's December decision on hiking interest rates.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren slammed "improper stock trading" among Fed officials. On Monday, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren sent a letter to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell regarding what she called "egregious and embarrassing ethics breaches by top officials at the Federal Reserve System," referring to reports of "improper" stock trading by officials behind closed doors. The scandals predate the October findings — in September 2021, for example, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan was found to have made multiple stock trades in 2020, along with Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren. He declined to comment on any pending investigations of Fed officials. Along with looking into potential ethics breaches within the Fed, Warren and other Democratic lawmakers have also raised concerns with the tactics the Fed is using to fight inflation.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailU.S. headed for mild recession in 2023, says former Boston Fed president Eric RosengrenFormer President of the Boston Federal Reserve Eric Rosengren says it's "quite likely" that the U.S. will face a mild recession next year as the central bank continues its efforts to rein in inflation.
A U.S. recession is "quite likely" next year as persistent inflationary pressures force the Federal Reserve to shift interest rates higher than expected, former Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren said Tuesday. Rosengren told CNBC that the U.S. central bank now looked likely to increase its terminal policy rate — the level at which it will stop raising interest rates — to more than the 5% forecast by investors, pushing the economy into a mild downturn in 2023. "I think it's quite likely the U.S. has a mild recession next year," Rosengren told CNBC's Joumanna Bercetche at a UBS conference in London. Asked to put a figure on the possible terminal rate, Rosengren said: "More than 5.5% would be my expectation." Following the announcement, traders bet the terminal rate would reach 5.09% by May from just over 5% before the meeting.
At the same time, an in-house Inspector General (IG) investigation into the regional Fed trading activities still hasn't been released and it's unclear when it will be. Unresolved in that process are publicly available disclosures for top staff at regional Fed banks. Right now, only disclosures for the Fed chief, members of the Fed's Board of Governors, top central bank staff and regional bank presidents are available. Given the quasi-private nature of the 12 regional Fed banks, there's no formal mechanism to compel those institutions to release this information. The Fed faced some criticism last year for failing to identify the financial trading activity that ensnared the regional bank presidents.
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